Key Takeaways Both stocks and bonds managed to post gains for the quarter, despite a banking crisis, interest rate increases, and geopolitical concerns. This is a welcome relief following a challenging 2022 and ongoing volatility that has continued in 2023. Our forecast for a mild recession late in 2023 has been pulled forward due to…

Key Takeaways 2022 was defined by inflation that proved not to be transitory and which was further exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve responded with sharp rate increases which led to double-digit declines for both stocks and bonds. A moderate recession likely is on the horizon in 2023, with higher unemployment and…

Key Takeaways We believe that the Fed is committed to driving current inflation down to target levels (2 to 2.5%) and wants to make sure inflation will not flare up again due to premature easing, avoiding a repeat of the late 1960s and 1970s. The consequence of Fed actions is a high probability of recession…

Key Takeaways Persistent inflation reached a 40-year high in the second quarter causing consternation for consumers, corporations, and the Federal Reserve. While the cure for high inflation (rate increases) may result in short-term pain for investors, it will benefit financial assets longer term. A 75-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in mid-June reflected a more…

Key Takeaways Inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled market volatility in the first quarter with declines in both the stock market and the bond market. The Federal Reserve seeks to implement multiple rate hikes this year as a result of inflation that is well above its 2% target and a…

Key Takeaways A strong economy, record-breaking stock market, and rising inflation were the hallmarks of 2021. Although we expect positive economic growth in 2022, COVID-19 and its variants will impact the path forward, both domestically and globally. Some inflationary pressures are expected to persist, but many are likely to decline due to supply chain repair…

Key Takeaways Emerging COVID-19 variants have disrupted the progress of the economic recovery, but the economy’s overall health has strengthened. Inflationary expectations, potential tax rate increases, and political gridlock fuel uncertainty. Periods of volatility in both equity and fixed income markets should be expected, as we recently saw in September when the S&P 500 dropped…

Key Takeaways The US is steadily emerging from the worst of the pandemic, and the economic recovery resulting from the reopening has been robust with the equity market surging to new heights. Inflationary expectations still rattle the markets, although the Federal Reserve continues to view inflation as a transitory issue. Changes in tax policy may…

Summary The vaccine rollout will fuel the pace and magnitude of the economic recovery in 2021. Government stimulus will help support struggling consumers, businesses, and state and local governments. With no foreseeable change in the existing low interest rate environment, equities remain poised to provide growth for investors. Key Takeaways It is important to note…