Key Takeaways US economic growth remains resilient and a recession seems unlikely in the near-term, although geopolitical concerns and pockets of weakness within the retail and manufacturing sectors suggest areas of softness are emerging. The equity market broadened in the recent quarter, with small and mid-cap company stocks outperforming their large-cap brethren. The Federal Reserve’s…

Key Takeaways While the US economy has remained resilient in 2024 due to a strong labor market and moderating inflation, there are several indications that growth is beginning to slow, although not enough to bring about a recession. Despite rich valuations and concentrated performance, the equity market reached new highs propelled by select AI-related stocks and…

Key Takeaways US economic growth has proved remarkably resilient during the first quarter of the year, primarily due to low unemployment giving consumers the confidence to keep spending. The strength in the economy has moderated the decline in the inflation rate, keeping the Fed on hold so far this year, and dampening investor expectations for…

Key Takeaways Investors have priced in an optimistic soft-landing scenario, but our expectation is for a slowdown or mild recession in early 2024 as the economy continues to feel the effects of two years of sharp Fed tightening. Despite slowing economic growth, lower short-term interest rates and an acceleration in corporate profit growth have the…

Key Takeaways The US economy has remained fairly strong, delaying the onset of a recession resulting from the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates 10 times over the last year. A mild recession is our base case as we expect the interest rate environment will slow economic growth eventually, increasing financial pressure on consumers and corporations…