The First One Hundred Days

May 5, 2025

Financial Markets

Last Wednesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term, and it was anything but uneventful. This coincided with the earnings releases for several major companies.  While earnings for the first three months of the year are being reported, the focus is squarely on how evolving tariff policy reshapes corporate expectations for the future. Many earnings calls were dominated by questions about the broader economic outlook and the implications of shifting trade dynamics.

Markets ended the week higher, continuing the S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak which defied a steady drumbeat of political and economic uncertainty. Investors climbed what has often been called a ‘wall of worry,’ fueled by speculation about potential global retaliation to U.S. tariffs and general policy disarray in Washington.

Despite the rally, concerns remain about the administration’s coordination between government policy and corporate interests. The apparent disconnect is beginning to weigh on investor and business confidence, even as markets continue to move higher for now.

Economics

On the economic front, both domestic and international observers are in a state of reassessment. From small business owners grappling with higher input costs to multinationals reevaluating global supply chains, uncertainty around the future of global trade persists.

Earnings calls reflected this confusion. Several CEOs declined to reaffirm or revise prior earnings guidance, citing a lack of clarity around policy direction. Some even opted to provide no guidance at all—an unusual move that reflects the complexity and uncertainty of the current environment.

It is still too early for many official data releases to capture the full impact of the administration’s evolving tariff and immigration regimes. However, current indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is still on solid footing. A notable example is the latest employment report, which came in better than feared. While payroll additions decelerated, the report was better than expected and showed employers are largely avoiding layoffs. Government layoffs—anticipated due to DOGE shakeups—have yet to appear in official data, as many remain delayed or entangled in legal proceedings.

A final note of reassurance came when President Trump’s offhand remark about firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was publicly walked back. Markets responded positively to the clarification, indicating investors’ sensitivity to perceived threats to monetary policy independence and the importance of steady leadership at the Fed.

Conclusion

As the administration’s economic strategy unfolds, the domestic economy and global geopolitical landscape remain in flux. The challenge is not only the uncertainty but also the sense that change has become the goal in and of itself without a clearly stated and well-reasoned endgame.

For investors, this presents both risks and opportunities. While volatility may persist, the underlying resilience of corporate earnings and consumer demand continues to support asset prices. Still, clarity on long-term policy direction would go a long way in restoring confidence.

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